Impacts of climate change on groundwater droughts by means of standardized indices and regional climate models

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on groundwater droughts making use regional projections and standardized indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Evapotranspiration (SPEI) Groundwater (SGI). The method adopted, using historical precipitation temperature data water levels collected in monitoring wells, first possible correlations between meteorological indices at each well. Then, if there is a correlation, linear regression analysis used to model relationships SGIs SPIs, SPEIs. same are infer future from SPI SPEI obtained by means an ensemble Regional Climate Models (RCMs), under different scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5). methodology has been applied northern Tuscany (Italy) area served company, where series daily variables (since 1934) records for 16 covering period 2005–2020, available. have computed short- (2006–2035), medium- (2036–2065) long-term (2066–2095). indicates that, most good correlation SPIs or results point out that SGI-SPI relationships, slight variations availability expected future. However, global warming scenario, influence evapotranspiration phenomena cannot be overlooked and, this reason, SGI-SPEI seem more suitable forecast droughts. According these negative effects almost all wells estimated For largest decline level medium-term, while 8.5 scenario will significantly decrease over long-term. Due type required its simplicity, can areas interest quick estimate scenarios.